Can Hogan Predict Whether an Executive Hire Will Succeed?

Experience, results, and chemistry can show if a senior candidate is the right fit. But they cannot reveal everything about how that person will operate in your organisation. So what do you still need to understand before making the final hiring decision?

Hogan adds another layer of information. It does not make the hiring decision. What matters is how that information connects with what you already know about the candidate, the role, and the organisation.

In this article, I want to show you what I look for, what makes me investigate further and how that information can influence an executive hiring recommendation.

1.What Are You Really Assessing When Hiring a Senior Executive?

When I assess a candidate for an executive hire, I combine the Hogan assessment with information gathered throughout the process. I start with the client briefing and the candidate’s CV. If we use Hogan, the candidate completes the assessment before we meet.

The first part of the meeting is a behavioural interview. We review their experience, career expectations, understanding of the company and the role, and why they believe they are a good fit for the position.

Then I connect what I learned in the interview with the Hogan results, the job brief, and the expected competency profile for the open position. I examine the candidate’s strengths and potential weaknesses, core values, leadership competencies and style, and any challenging situations or red flags for the position.

The behaviour-based interview is particularly important because it connects the candidate’s real previous experience with what I see in Hogan. This is where good questioning and good listening skills become very important.

Will the Same Strengths Work in a Different Organisation?

Experience is usually the trigger. They know the business, have done this before, and communicate well. This is what we need. In that sense, experience can look almost “plug and play”.

But there are different facets and layers behind the behaviour and appearance you see. I want to understand how those behaviours might appear in this particular organisation.

Someone may have been a perfect match in their previous company, but not in yours. You cannot assume that the strengths that worked in one environment will work in the same way in another.

2. What Can Hogan Reveal When an Executive Candidate Looks Right?

By this stage, we have completed the interviews and moved from the longlist to the shortlist. The client has met the candidate, the chemistry is there, and they have checked the expert and technical skills for the role.

Before the final decision, Hogan can provide an additional layer. I want to see if what we have learned throughout the process holds and if anything remains unclear.

It may confirm what we have already seen or provide new information that requires closer attention.

When a Strong Candidate Stays Vague and Noncommittal

I had this situation with a candidate in an external executive search. She had reached the final stage and was the clear fit in terms of competence and culture. She had the experience the company was looking for and good chemistry with the hiring manager.

But something in her responses needed clarification. She was warm, engaged and collaborative, but reluctant to be concrete. I missed decisiveness. Instead of “Yes, I will do this” or “This is what I need,” it was more: “Let’s talk. Let’s see. We will talk. Everything will be fine.”

I could see a behavioural pattern, but I could not yet define what was behind it.

Her profile showed high Leisurely, low Ambition and low Recognition. Leisurely matched what I had noticed: feeling unappreciated and a tendency toward passive aggression. The results gave me more insight into the behaviour I had seen.

That pattern also affected how she negotiated. She found it difficult to stand up for herself and be clear about what she wanted. Instead, her behaviour could become defensive and aggressive. This pattern could repeat during negotiations.

By this point, the offer had been agreed and accepted, and she had confirmed that she would resign from her current company. In the end, she did not move. She used the external offer to negotiate with her current employer and stayed.

Her experience, competence and chemistry had all pointed towards a strong candidate. What required a closer look was how she behaved when she needed to take a position and negotiate for what she wanted.

Making a senior hiring decision and want another perspective on the candidate?

3. Does a Derailer in a Hogan Profile Mean You Shouldn’t Hire the Candidate?

Seeing a potential derailer does not necessarily mean I would recommend against the candidate. The risk could be a mismatch with the role, a readiness gap, a behavioural pattern that causes problems in certain situations, or something that limits the person’s long-term impact.

What matters is how relevant such behaviour is for this appointment and whether the leadership potential exists.

From Zero Direct Reports to Leading Three Departments

The company wanted to promote an internal candidate and decided not to run an external search. He was considered the best option, and they needed a solution quickly.

The move was significant. He was coming from an expert role and jumping two levels into a leadership position, managing three departments and about twelve people. He had never had a direct report before.

From the client briefing onward, I had one reservation. It wasn’t that he couldn’t fit the role or lacked leadership potential. My concern was that the move might be too big, too early.

I received his CV, and he completed the Hogan assessment. We then met in person. The first part of the meeting was an hour-long interview. We went through his experience, expectations and career aspirations; his understanding of the company and the role; and why he believed he might fit the position. Then we moved into the Hogan results.

There are things I notice in a Hogan profile that make me think, “Ah, this will be worth exploring.” In the conversation, I explore how the person listens, responds to feedback, and understands their own capabilities. One thing that becomes clear is their level of self-awareness.

In this case, I concluded that the two-level jump was unsupported and excessive. He had leadership potential but should not move into the role immediately without a company mentor and coaching support. He needed to develop basic leadership skills he had never needed before, including business planning, team management, and giving feedback.

He moved into the role, with the development needs we had identified clearly in view. It is working really well.

4. What Actually Influences an Executive Hiring Recommendation?

I never make a recommendation based solely on Hogan’s result. I use the Hogan results along with my observations and conclusions from the behavioural interview: the answers I receive, how the person responds, the questions they ask, and how they react to feedback.

I then relate that to the client brief and the requirements of the appointment. Depending on what we see, my recommendation may be that the person has high potential or that the appointment represents low, medium, or high risk. I also assess whether the leadership potential exists to take over the role.

The Hogan results tell me where I need to pay attention. The interview allows me to connect those results with the candidate’s actual experience and behaviour. Good questioning and good listening skills come in here.

Why I Use Hogan Towards the End of the Hiring Process

I don’t want to profile ten candidates. We first need to understand who is genuinely a good match for the client's expectations regarding the role requirements and needed experience.

We conduct interviews, present candidates, and move from the longlist to a shortlist of three people. The client then meets them. At that stage, they assess the chemistry and explore the expert and technical experience required for the role. From there, the client may take one or two candidates into the next round.

This is when I use Hogan. By then, the company knows a great deal about the candidate and may have met them two or three times. Hogan adds the personality layer before the final decision.

I have written separately about what a Hogan assessment can reveal about a leader. In an executive hiring process, I use that information to check what we have learned through the interviews, the case study, and observations from the people involved. Sometimes it confirms what we know. Sometimes it provides new information.

5. Are You Hiring for Today or for the Leader You Will Need in the Future ?

I always share with clients that you never hire for today. You hire for the future.

When deciding between two candidates, I ask them to consider how they will see those candidates in six months and then in five years.

At this level, you choose between experienced people. The experience, background, and results are there. But you are moving someone from company X to company Z, which has a different environment. You need to understand if this is a match for what you will need in the future.

One candidate might deliver immediately but not bring the same long-term value. Another might be slower at first but could bring greater value over time.

And long-term value is not only about results. It is also about how that person impacts the company's strategy, culture, and how they develop people.

6. Can Hogan Predict Whether an Executive Hire Will Succeed?

Hogan can give us additional information about how a person is likely to behave, how they might respond in particular situations, their leadership potential, and where there may be risks. We then connect that with what we already know from the interviews, the candidate’s experience, the role’s requirements, and the organisation itself.

For the company, this reduces the risk of hiring someone who does not deliver, leaves after six months, or turns out to be a mismatch.

That is the value I see in using Hogan in executive hiring: not to find the “perfect candidate” but to understand what we need to explore before making a decision.

Considering a senior hire or internal promotion?

I work with companies in Slovenia and internationally on executive hiring, assessment and leadership decisions.

Together, we can review the role, the candidate, and the information you have and identify what still needs to be understood before you decide.

I'm the founder of BOC Institute, one of the renowned consulting agencies for international companies operating in Slovenia and South-East Europe.

I coach CEOs and top managers 1:1 worldwide. I'm here to save you time, energy, and money through your objectives, decision-making, and leadership development. I understand we can change the world one coaching session at a time!

Do you feel like having a call? You can reach out here and let me guide you from there.

BOOK A CALL

Simona Špilak www.simonaspilak.com